More bank failures to come
24/11/08 09:02
Hi Traders
First I want to thank all the attendees at the Charlotte, NC workshop. It is always a pleasure to share my experiences and trading methods with the group. I hope that the content of the workshop has offered a clear vision and further insight into the FX market. I want to thank Angie Crisp for organizing the workshop and to Greg Crisp for his guest presentation. As you know, Greg has been a student of mine for three years and has become an independant thinking and hhighly successful full time trader. Although he uses my methods and market approach, he succeeded because of the commitment, effort and study he made to the business. All the students show great aptitude for the business and I hope I can continue to be a part of your growth as a trader. The process and pursuit of success in this business will enhance many area's of your life.
The US government has stepped in once again to shore up financial market stability, this time with a joint rescue package from the Treasury, Fed and FDIC for the US' second-largest bank, Citigroup! If you have not done so already, please view the video FDIC chariman posted in the blog, where the undertones suggest further bank failures. Hang on folks!! The government and the bank identified an asset pool of about $306bln worth of distressed real-estate backed loans and securities. Under the plan, the bank would be responsible for the initial $29bn of losses on the portfolio. The Treasury, FDIC and Fed would then take on any additional losses, with the Fed acting as the backstop. Treasury will also provide a $20bln cash injection (in addition to $25bn already issued under TARP) in return for preferred securities in the bank. On the economic front, US President-elect Obama announced a new initiative aimed at creating 2.5mln new jobs, which may act as good intentions but will likely not outweigh the tsunami of job losses to come as the auto industry and other related manufacturing suffer badly in the coming months. The new stimulus package could be in the range of $500bln to $700bln and Congress is expected to have it ready for Obama to sign shortly after his inauguration. Obama will also formally announce his economic team, with Timothy Geithner as Treasury secretary and Lawrence Summers as head of the White House National Economic Council. Read More...
First I want to thank all the attendees at the Charlotte, NC workshop. It is always a pleasure to share my experiences and trading methods with the group. I hope that the content of the workshop has offered a clear vision and further insight into the FX market. I want to thank Angie Crisp for organizing the workshop and to Greg Crisp for his guest presentation. As you know, Greg has been a student of mine for three years and has become an independant thinking and hhighly successful full time trader. Although he uses my methods and market approach, he succeeded because of the commitment, effort and study he made to the business. All the students show great aptitude for the business and I hope I can continue to be a part of your growth as a trader. The process and pursuit of success in this business will enhance many area's of your life.
The US government has stepped in once again to shore up financial market stability, this time with a joint rescue package from the Treasury, Fed and FDIC for the US' second-largest bank, Citigroup! If you have not done so already, please view the video FDIC chariman posted in the blog, where the undertones suggest further bank failures. Hang on folks!! The government and the bank identified an asset pool of about $306bln worth of distressed real-estate backed loans and securities. Under the plan, the bank would be responsible for the initial $29bn of losses on the portfolio. The Treasury, FDIC and Fed would then take on any additional losses, with the Fed acting as the backstop. Treasury will also provide a $20bln cash injection (in addition to $25bn already issued under TARP) in return for preferred securities in the bank. On the economic front, US President-elect Obama announced a new initiative aimed at creating 2.5mln new jobs, which may act as good intentions but will likely not outweigh the tsunami of job losses to come as the auto industry and other related manufacturing suffer badly in the coming months. The new stimulus package could be in the range of $500bln to $700bln and Congress is expected to have it ready for Obama to sign shortly after his inauguration. Obama will also formally announce his economic team, with Timothy Geithner as Treasury secretary and Lawrence Summers as head of the White House National Economic Council. Read More...
UBS Perspectives - Risk Aversion Still Key
18/11/08 11:55
Traders,
Please review the document in the free members area titled "UBS Perspectives - Risk Aversion Still Key"
This document will provide you with an excellent insiders analysis of what is driving the foreign exchange market, at present. The importance of studying the review is to expand your knowledge of this market and enhance your ability to pick up on specific market drivers and identifying important factors influencing price, trends and volatility.
Ref: UBS
Good Luck with your trading and be careful out there!
Chris Lori
CTA
Read More...
Please review the document in the free members area titled "UBS Perspectives - Risk Aversion Still Key"
This document will provide you with an excellent insiders analysis of what is driving the foreign exchange market, at present. The importance of studying the review is to expand your knowledge of this market and enhance your ability to pick up on specific market drivers and identifying important factors influencing price, trends and volatility.
Ref: UBS
Good Luck with your trading and be careful out there!
Chris Lori
CTA
Read More...
Risk CCY's have very little holding power
11/11/08 19:41
The fear of recession took control of the US equity
markets, overshadowing China's stimulus package and
the increased AIG bailout package. Dow finished
Monday at 8870.54, down 0.82%. S&P closed at
919.21, down 1.27%. The financial led the bourses
lower as market expects a Q4 loss from US bank.
Meanwhile, General Motors share came under
significant selling pressure as one of the analyst
reports expects its stock price to fell to 0.
Meanwhile, Asian markets are lower at time of
writing, evidenced by the JPY rally. Read
More...
Technical Dollar Reversal, Retail Sales a Focus for the Week Ahead
10/11/08 11:06
The dollar was undermined on Friday by falling risk
aversion, with the S&P500 rising by 2.9%. In this
context, EURUSD has risen to a high of 1.2833 in the
US session from a low of 1.2718 and has subsequently
traded even higher this morning to current levels
around1.2850. Meanwhile, credit markets look to be
normalising further - the 3-month spread between OIS
and Libor for the US dollar fell to 1.76%, from 1.83%
on Thursday. Read
More...
Bank of England Cuts 150bp - Its about time they face the inevitable!
07/11/08 07:52
Risk appetite deteriorated again overnight despite
aggressive rate cuts by a number of central banks,
including the BoE, the EBC and the SNB. US stocks
however traded lower, with the S&P500 down by 5%,
and Asian stock markets this morning are also heading
lower with Australia's S&P/ASX200 down by 4.3% so
far at the time of writing. Falling yield
differentials globally and deteriorating risk
appetite pushed EURUSD, EURJPY and USDJPY lower.
Think about, if rate spreads are contracting against
EUR and JPY is maintaining a sustained rally on any
hint of risk aversion and falling equity markets
globally (-2 to -5% is common lately), than a short
EURJPY is a well defined fundamental trend. I see
further downside for this pair... Don't chase it. In
fact, a deeper than expected US NFP or Retail Sales
next week can offer a rally in which to sell. The
challenge is the volatility on the pair make stop
placement a challenge. To mitigate risk, take
unleveraged position sizes like the smart
professionals, not the dumb ones. Read
More...